Every call below was written down before its window closed, then graded against Kalshi's official settlement. Wins and losses are both shown. Nothing here is a promise of future results.
Source: the full graded record across every market in the shared books (the same record behind the site's Crypto Leader tables).
Read this honestly — it is the whole point of this page: being right on direction is not the same as making money. After the price you pay and Kalshi's fee, only the 98–100% confidence tier beat break-even in the full-book record. The mid tiers were right often and still did not beat break-even. That is why this site labels soft calls as soft instead of dressing them up.
Source: the site's own frozen call logs — the live log since Oct 28, 2026. Calls freeze at 5:30 left and cannot be edited afterwards; grading is against Kalshi settlements.
| Call set | Graded | Record | Right |
|---|---|---|---|
| Main board calls (BTC, ETH, Gold, Copper, USD/JPY, USD/CAD) | 45 | 39 RIGHT / 6 WRONG | 86.7% |
| All-market calls (15 markets) | 142 | 102 RIGHT / 40 WRONG | 71.8% |
| Checkpoint feed — call at 10:00 left (7:15 PM–9:15 PM PT) | 167 | 109 RIGHT / 58 WRONG | 65.3% |
| Checkpoint feed — call at 5:00 left (7:15 PM–9:15 PM PT) | 149 | 103 RIGHT / 46 WRONG | 69.1% |
Logged calls not yet graded above: 0 — their windows had not settled (or had no market) when this page was built. Small samples swing hard: one evening is a start of a record, not proof of a rate.
Source: the paper ledger since Oct 28, 2026 — $20 paper stakes on the website call at 6:00 left in 15 markets, held to settlement, Kalshi fee charged on every trade. Paper only: no real orders are placed by this book.
The exclusion, stated plainly: the raw paper total is +$7,250.74, but 5 of those trades "filled" at 1¢ — a $20 stake at 1¢ pretends to buy 2,000 contracts that real order books do not offer, and those paper fills alone added +$5,893.05. They are excluded from the money figure above. What remains is the honest number: +$1,357.69. Even it is flattered by a few very cheap fills (2¢–6¢) that real books would fill only in part — so read the direction record (69.3% right) as the sturdier measure, and the dollars as paper, always. The calls are graded in the open precisely so this difference is never hidden.
1. During every 15-minute window, the site computes its call from the live spot price versus the
market's target and its measured tables.
2. At 5:30 left, the call is frozen — written to a log that later edits cannot change.
3. After the window closes, the frozen call is graded RIGHT or WRONG against Kalshi's official
settlement for that market. There is no partial credit and no deleting a loss.
4. This page is rebuilt from those logs on an hourly cycle, so the record grows window by window,
in public, whether the night was good or bad.
Past performance does not predict future results. Trading event contracts involves substantial risk of loss; never trade money you cannot afford to lose.